4.22.05
What Are The Odds?
By Keith W. Tyras Romanello    2004: 10.22  10.29  11.5  11.12  11.19  11.26  12.3  12.10  12.17  12.24  12.31
2005: 1.7  1.14  1.21  1.28  2.4  2.11  2.18  2.25  3.4  3.11  3.18  3.25  4.1  4.8  4.15  4.29  5.6  5.13  5.20  5.27  6.3  6.10  6.17  6.24  7.1  7.8  7.15  7.22  7.29  8.5  8.12  8.19  8.26  9.2
The other day I was reading an article on LiveScience.com entitled "The Odds of Dying," written by Robert Roy Britt.  It begins with: «When major catastrophes strike, like the recent Asian earthquake and tsunami, the mass deaths can lead one to think that natural disasters are the most likely way people can die.
 
Not by a long shot
»
 
The article continues to list the odds of specific causes of death. The figures mentioned below are for U.S. residents.  Whether "U.S. residents" includes Puerto Rico is anyone's guess.  I suppose that besides deaths by cold weather events, these numbers are close enough to reflect similar odds in Puerto Rico.  Pay close attention to the "LEGAL EXECUTION" and "DOG ATTACK" odds.

The Odds Of Dying
 
Heart Disease
1-in-5
 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -

Cancer
1-in-7
 
Cancer Takes Over Top Spot As Killer Of Americans Under 85
 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -

Stroke
1-in-23
 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -

Accidental Injury
1-in-36

-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -
 
Motor Vehicle Accident*
1-in-100
 
From LiveScience.com: Study Finds Dramatic Rise In Binge Drinking And Driving
 
«After a long decline in alcohol-impaired driving, Americans are back at it in a big way.
 
From 1993 to 1997 the estimated annual number of alcohol-impaired driving instances declined more than one percent per year. A new study finds the rate increased 37 percent from 1997 to 1999, however, and continued to increase in 2002, the most recent year for which data was available.
 
Four out of five cases were related to what experts call binge drinking, when the driver has had five or more drinks.
 
The study was done by the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and is published in the May issue of the American Journal of Preventive Medicine. 
 
"This is not just a statistical bump or noise in the data," said University of Chicago researcher Kyran Quinlan. "This is a true behavioral change." 
 
If the behavior can't be curbed, the costs are likely to be high for U.S. residents:
 
- Motor vehicle accidents are the leading cause of death for people aged 1 to 34.

- Odds already said 30 percent of Americans would be in an alcohol-related crash in their lifetimes.

- Alcohol-related crashes cause an estimated $50 billion in damages every year.

"This tells us that we urgently need new strategies to prevent alcohol-impaired driving with special emphasis on reducing binge drinking," Quinlan said.
 
The study was based on telephone surveys of more than 100,000 U.S. residents, aged 18 or older, in 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999 and 2002. Those who drank were asked, "During the past month, how many times have you driven when you've perhaps had too much to drink?" 
 
Binge drinkers were 13 times more likely to say they had driven while drunk.
 
The researchers say the survey likely underestimates the problem, since many respondents -- even though they were promised confidentiality -- were probably reluctant to admit they had driven while under the influence. And the survey didn't even include drivers under age 18.
»
 
From USA Today: Traffic Lights Get An "F" In Efficiency
Backed Up At A Traffic Light? Frustrated When You Hit A Red Light Only A Block After Driving Through A Green? Odds Are, Those Traffic Signals May Need Some Work. That's The Conclusion Of A New Study By The D.C.-Based Institute Of Transportation Engineers
 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -

Intentional Self-Harm -- Suicide
1-in-121
 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -
 
Falling Down
1-in-246
 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -

Assault By Firearm
1-in-325
 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -
 
Fire Or Smoke
1-in-1,116
 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -
 
Natural Forces Including Heat, Cold, Storms, Quakes, Etc.
1-in-3,357

Forecast For 2005: Another Busy Hurricane Season
 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -
 
Electrocution*
1-in-5,000
 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -
 
Drowning
1-in-8,942
 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -
 
Air Travel Accident*
1-in-20,000
 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -
 
Flood* - Included Also In Natural Forces - Above
1-in-30,000
 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -
 
Legal Execution
1-in-58,618
 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -
 
Tornado* - Included Also In Natural Forces - Above
1-in-60,000
 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -
 
Lightning Strike - Included Also In Natural Forces - Above
1-in-83,930
 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -
 
Snake, Bee Or Other Venomous Bite Or Sting*
1-in-100,000
 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -
 
Earthquake - Included Also In Natural Forces - Above
1-in-131,890
 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -
 
Dog Attack
1-in-147,717
 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -
 
Asteroid Impact*
1-in-200,000**
 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -
 
Tsunami*
1-in-500,000
 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -

Fireworks Discharge
1-in-615,488
 
 
Specific figures are based on 2001, the most recent year for which complete data are available .  .  .
 
SOURCES: National Center for Health Statistics, CDC; American Cancer Society; National Safety Council; International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies; World Health Organization; USGS; Clark Chapman, SwRI; David Morrison, NASA; Michael Paine, Planetary Society Australian Volunteers

 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -
 
The Vatican
 
Seriously Considering A Latino As Pope
0-in-0

 
Becoming Its Own Worst Enemy
1-in-1
 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -
 
Puerto Rico News Coverage In The U.S. English-Language Media
 
Chances Of Reading About Puerto Rican Boxer Joseph Serrano's Inspirational Story Of Survival
0-in-1,000,000
 
Chances Of Reading About Puerto Rican Ex-Beauty Queen Brenda Robles' Disgraceful Shoplifting Conviction Story
1-in-8
 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -
 
Puerto Rico News Coverage In The U.S. Spanish-Language Media
 
Chances Of Reading "La recuperación de Joseph Serrano"
1-in-1,000,000
 
Chances Of Reading "Sentencian a ex Miss Puerto Rico, Brenda Robles por hurto en tienda"
1-in-12
 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -

"That's All Folks!" Weekly Commentary
 
Reading It On NotiPuertoRico.com
1-in-274,000
 
-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -
 
Having It Forwarded To You By E-Mail
1-in-1,626

-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -
 
Admitting To Anyone You Actually Enjoy Reading It***
1-in-3,900,000
 
* Based on long-term data     ** Perhaps 1-in-500,000     *** Perhaps 1-in-4,000,000


Well, that's all folks! Until next Friday.

Keith


For motivational speeches, conferences, media requests and other things such as eating disorders, you'll have to contact someone else. My only qualifications for writing a weekly column are based solely upon having a lot of free time, unlimited Internet access and very little else.

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